Write a brief report discussing your answers to the tasks below using the GM circulation data and submit your quantitative analysis on a supporting spreadsheet. The aim of this assignment is to model and analyse the data appropriately and interpret your output to provide recommendations to the owner of Garrett Magazines on how to manage the business going forward.

For the Tom’s Treats magazine data:

Task 1:  Carry out appropriate diagnostic analysis to confirm whether you agree with Jake Fearne’s conclusion that the data for Tom’s Treats is stationary.  Make sure you provide a body of evidence to back up your reasoning.

Task 2:  In your spreadsheet, apply the following FOUR updating schemes: Naïve Forecasting, Updating the Mean, Moving Average of Length k and either Weighted Moving Average of length k OR Simple Exponential Smoothing. 

In your report, provide a summary table to present the forecast for the next time period under each of the schemes and write a short statement to justify the values you introduce, ie: k, weights, alpha, method of optimisation.  

Task 3:  Evaluate each updating scheme you have used in task 2 using statistical and graphical analysis.  Recommend which one updating scheme should be used to forecast the next time period value.  In your discussion explain why you have selected your chosen scheme over the other methods and discuss how suitable you think your model is.

For the Cass’s Cakes magazine data:

Task 4:  Carry out diagnostic analysis and build an appropriate model to forecast the circulation data for Cass’s Cakes. Make sure you are clear about which time series components you believe this data exhibits and back up your reasoning with graphical and statistical analysis.  Present your forecast for the next time period.

Task 5:  Evaluate your model in task 4 using statistical and graphical analysis and discuss any factors that the manager should consider when forecasting data that is exhibiting this/these time series components.

For all magazine data:

Task 6:  Given your analysis of Garrett Magazine’s circulation data what factors, issues or developments should Jake Fearne consider for the future?

MARKING CRITERIA

The marking criteria guidelines are published in advance so you know how you will be judged for this piece of work and are available on Studyspace. 

Paper details

Chapter 6 – Managerial Decision Making

Chapter 13 – Managing Communication

TEXTBOOK: UNDERSTANDING MANAGEMENT. RICHARD L. DAFT, DOROTHY MARCIC Case Studies Topics The case studies are located at the end of each chapter in your textbook. These are the cases you are assigned: Case Study Information (SEE BELOW INSTRUCTION FOR CASE STUDY) • Case Study 1 (found in Lesson 3) • Title: The Office • Location in Textbook: Chapter 6 • Case Study 2 (found in Lesson 5) • Title: E-mail Adventure • Location in Textbook: Chapter 13 Criteria Both case studies MUST be submitted to pass the course! • To summarize the case you should read it, analyze it, and then condense it. Include those points that are pertinent to understanding the case; omit those that are not. • This is similar to an Executive Summary that you may have experienced in the business/professional world or other classes. When you have finished, the reader of your summary should have a complete understanding of the case, but with much less detail than provided by the textbook author. • Answer the case study questions completely, using the doctrine provided in the text, your analysis of the case, and your experience/judgment. If a question has more than one part, ensure you answer all of it. The following criteria will be used in assigning a grade to each case study: • Submit the case study on time: 5 points • The case study is limited to one page: 5 points • The case study contains a summary of the case: 5 points • All case questions are fully answered: 20 points • The case study is of college-level rigor (grammar, spelling, punctuation, completeness, etc.): 15 points TOTAL: 50 Format Use the following format for case studies: Student’s name: John H. Doe Title: Society of Equals Summary: Provide a concise, but complete, summary of the case. Question 1: Response: Question 2: Response: Question 3: Response:

Question 1

1. Discuss framing and how it affects the decision-making process. Your response should consist of no less than 200 words

Question 2

1. Discuss your most recent decision to purchase a major item (entertainment center, automobile, home, etc.). In what way did the acquisition utility or the transactional utility come into play for you?

Question 3

1. Discuss your attitude about certainty, uncertainty, and risk when making decisions. How has your attitude helped or hindered your ability to make rational decisions?

Question 4

1. Describe the concepts of joint and separate preference reversals. Also, discuss the similarities and differences that exist between the two. Your response should consist of no less than 200 words.